Asia's Bonds Face Rising Risks from US Rates, Mid-East Tensions, PRC Property

Emerging East Asia’s local currency bonds have performed well so far in 2014 but an earlier-than-anticipated US rate hike, a slowing property market in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and higher risk aversion and inflation due to Middle East tensions could undermine that, says a new report from the Asian Development Bank (ADB).Asia looks well placed to face any volatility but the risks are definitely rising,” said Iwan J. Azis, Head of ADB’s Office of Regional Economic Integration. “Higher US interest rates and a stronger dollar could also make it tougher for the rising number of US dollar borrowers to service their debt.”
ADB’s latest quarterly Asia Bond Monitor shows that as of the end of June, there were $7.9 trillion in outstanding bondsing emerging East Asia, 2.5% more than at the end of March and 9.3% more than at the end of June 2013.Local currency bond issuance totaled $1.1 trillion in the second quarter, up from $852 billion in the first quarter. Meanwhile, sales of bonds denominated in US dollars, euros, or yen in January through July was $121.4 billion, suggesting the region will set another record for annual issuance.Emerging East Asia comprises the PRC; Hong Kong, China; Indonesia; the Republic of Korea; Malaysia; Philippines; Singapore; Thailand; and Viet Nam.Viet Nam was the fastest growing local currency bond market, both on a quarterly and an annual basis. However, the PRC remains the largest market in Asia after Japan, with $4.9 trillion in outstanding bonds. That marked a 3.4% on-quarter rise and a 10.8% annual rise, largely due to the increase in outstanding policy bank bonds and local corporate bonds.In the PRC, a slowing of the property market is a concern because most collateralized borrowing is secured against property. A drop in property-related revenue could make it more difficult for local government to service their bonds. Property companies have also become increasingly prevalent bond issuers themselves.

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